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How Much Will the Turkish and German Economies Grow in 2026?

According to official forecasts, Turkey is expected to enter a period of faster economic growth after 2026, while Germany’s economy is projected to experience only a modest recovery.

Published

5 months ago

13/12/2025

Harun Yazıcı

Photo: Freepik

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Growth expectations for Turkey and Germany from 2026 onward point to a clear divergence between the two economies. Official government programs and projections by international institutions indicate that Turkey is moving onto a significantly stronger growth trajectory compared with Germany.

Turkey Enters 2026 with Strong Growth Ambitions

In Turkey, inflation in 2025 exceeded initial forecasts. Persistently high inflation, along with pressure from exchange rates and interest rates, underscores ongoing economic vulnerabilities and risks. Despite these challenges, the Turkish economy continues to expand.

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According to Turkey’s Presidential Program for 2026, the economy is targeted to grow by 3.8 percent. International organizations such as the OECD project that Turkey’s growth rate could approach 4 percent. Domestic demand, exports, and investment-focused policies are expected to remain the main drivers of economic growth.

Germany’s Recovery Remains Weak, Growth Seen at Around 1 Percent

Economic expectations for Germany in 2026 are considerably more restrained. Forecasts by the European Commission and German economic research institutes suggest that Germany’s economy will grow by around 1 percent. High energy and production costs, combined with uncertainty in global demand, continue to weigh on economic recovery.

Sources: OECD, IMF, Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, ifo Institute for Economic Research